Rtd Major Dhado Godhana Shall Win The Election With A Landslide

Hwisaaa.

On 26th November we had a gasa meeting that took place at Shika Adabu. The meeting was to conclude the gubernatorial candidate race. The meeting was attended by all the gasa elders from Galole, Garsen and Bura. Also the vieti gasa from Kipini to Mbalambala attended the meeting
. Others who were at the meeting were the youths, women, proffessionals, religious leaders and other aspirants.
Rtd Major Godhana was endorsed to vie for the governorship post. The other seats were divided as follows: Senator post will go to Garsen constituency, women rep to go to Bura constituency. And that was it. It was finally decided and everyone accepted to move on.

But there is still a minor problem that is currently challenging us pokomos, we have lesser votes compared to the cushites. The cushites are the majority voters in Tana River County.

According to an analysis we conducted, pokomo have 36,000 votes, orma have 19,000 votes and the wardei have 26,000 votes. When we combine the orma-wardei votes they have a total of 45,000 votes. Us the pokomo are 9,000 votes less than the cushites. So even if there is an election today we will lose miserably.

For this problem to be sorted out the pokomo must first unite to be one. The gasa have chosen Major to unite us. I know there are misunderstanding that Mungatana was the one who was endorsed by the gasa but i think by now you must have known that DBM was endorsed by the sesa (the former 2013 gasa), and not the gasa (current one). So in order for us to sail through this stormy current, we must first join hands and unite to be as one block or we shall lose.

But what if some people chose to go against the gasa wish to choose Major as governor and instead go for DBM?

According to Major camp, that is not a big issue at all. The major team is the majority. The team major is all over TRC. First we did not believe their theory but later after an independent analysis on our Tana Yetu blog and other outlets, we have discovered it to be true. Major has a huge number of votes across the entire Tana River County.

First from our own poll currently Godhana has a majority of 72% whereas Mungatana has a majority of 28%, higher than what Major team has on their own statistics. Also according to simple analysis according to the county wards, we discovered Godhana has potential votes compared to Mungatana.

A quick analysis of votes Mungatana can likely woo is from Garsen South ward, Garsen Central, Bangale and a bit of Hirimani. The rest of the votes are heavily on Major.

Maybe some people might not be convinced by this analysis, but this is actually what is happening on the ground. Godhana is the most popular candidate in the pokomo community, and we can’t afford to lose even a single vote. It can be devastating.

Others are comparing the 2013 elections with the 2017 elections. They believe Mungatana’s 14,076 votes can multiply and make him the governer, it might be true on suggestion but in reality it is impossible. Here is why:
Mungatana (TNA) got 14,076 votes
Tunea Dado (WIPER) got 23,739 votes
Adam Barisa (ODM) got 8,352 votes
Barissa Badiribo (NARK-K) got 6,990 votes
Molu Shambaro (URP) got 9,450 votes

The votes from deceased Badiribo and Adam will automatically go to Major, there is nothing to  urgue here because Godhana is the flag bearer of ODM. Also we remember in 2013 Godhana stepped down his ambition to vie for the gubernatorial seat, and most of his votes were channeled to Mungatana, that why he managed to get a whooping 14k votes. That was quite a something, and now Godhana is here to get those votes back. (If you were keen on 2013 election, this won’t be hard to understand)

Now let get bact to 2017. What is the strategy? Major camp are doing the coalition of the willing, if you want to join, its good. If you dont want then no problem.

According to major camp team, here is their strategy:
Pokomo votes: 36,000
NIT and sympathizer votes: 6,000
Pokomo united votes: (36,000 – 6,000) = 30,000
Needed votes to secure governorship post: 45,000
United Pokomo votes shortage: 15,000

The United pokomo are less short of 15,000 votes and the camp know where they will get these votes, it’s a “siri ya kudzimu”, only a few know how they are going to get the 15,000 votes. We also got an insight of it but it’s going to be a bit challenge.

Now the ball is on every one of us. We have the 30,000 votes and we are needed to get the 15,000 votes. We are needed to convince every one to back Major. I know there is this issue of NIT but i believe sooner they will jump to Godhana Ark. We should forget our differences and step up to make sure we secure the seat. Remember we may quarrel, we may argue, we may even fight, but at the end of the day we all drink from the same river. I’m off. Please share if you care. You can make the difference if you truly convince your fellow tanarian to join the team.

Statistics courtesy of IEBC