Hi everyone! We are back, and from the heading above, Mungatana shall smile all the way to the bank.
The Tanariver politics have changed to something
new. Nowadays its common to hear the word ‘coalition’. The pokomo-orma, the orma-wardei, the wardei-pokomo, wardei-elwana, elwana-nyoyaya etc. All these are coalitions in strategies to win the 2017 gubernatorial election, in short things are really hot.
Well, today we decided to focus on Mungatana. The last time we did a Mungatana post it was bad. We clearly showed that he was running into a political suicide mission. Ok. As a panel we decided to re-run our previous post and find any loophole that can at least give a slight chance for Mungatana’s bid to win the gubernatorial seat and what we came to discover is shocking! Mungatana is highly likely to win this election even before 9am in the morning. Someone will say this is impossible, but we have all the reasons to say YES IT IS POSSIBLE! And this is why...
The voter registrations statistics we had months ago is different from the current data we are having. Votes have increased and we are yet to group them to the exact categories. So we will be using the preliminary data we have basing on a 75% possibility chance. Last year pokomo had 36,000 votes, Orma 19,000 votes, and Wardei had 26,000 votes. So we shall assume an increase margin of 7,000 votes to each group. The data now will be:
Pokomo 42,000 votes
Orma 26,000 votes
Wardei 33,000 votes
That’s a rough idea of the current preliminary data we shall be using until further notice.
NOW let’s get back to Mungatana. Are you aware of any dealing his team is currently doing? They are in negotiation with the cushites, and specifically with the wardei community. Weeks ago Mungatana unveiled the TASA coalition. We were tipped that he was forming a mega super alliance, and that is the wardei community.
Days ago the team met with the wardei and they were offered a lucrative deal. According to an insider who was in the negotiation panel informed us that Mungatana was offered a deputy governor post while his friend Nuh Nassir Abdi was to be the governor. Well, thats a super deal to me bearing in mind Mungatana only commands less than 15% of pokomo votes (citation from our previous posts)
This is the ONLY clear shot that Mungatana has and MUST take it if he needs to be politically relevant. Let’s get back to the drawing board...
If Mungatana commands a roughly 15% votes from pokomo, then he has 6,300 votes which automatically is his.
Nuh Nassir can roughly command 85% total wardei votes (he was endorsed and accepted by the wardei elders) so that will translate to 28,000 votes.
28,000 votes plus 6,300 votes amounts to 34,300 votes. This is 10,700 votes shy to beat the 45,000 votes to secure the gubernatorial seat.
(from here we wrap our findings and go speculative)
The team is roughly 11,000 votes shy to secure the gubernatorial seats. To me i think that is more than enough. First, no single group has more than 34,300 votes. This puts the two at an advantage over the other groups.
Second, Mungatana and Nuh have the muscles, they can convince ‘others’ to join them. Assume Mungatana convinces more pokomos and ormas and Nuh convinces some munyoyaya, they can up the votes by 15,000 putting them at a better chance.
Third the Mungatana and Nuh are politically favoured by the Jubilee administration, the party has some muscles to infiltrate the IEBC at some levels.
Forth the swing votes. A TASA coalition sounds good. They might automatically attracts votes.
WELL, there are alot of ways these two can win this thing. ANYWAY, they are already negotiating so actually they know how they will win this election.
NOW back to my point. This is the only chance he has. It’s a clear shot, either you shoot it, or lose it. The guy has decided to move on. The Pokomo United can never win this thing, why waste energy?? We soon are expecting a pokomo-wardei governance. Take it or leave it...and before i go, i have just been reminded to compare the 2013 and 2017 coalition pattern, that’s my homework today, you can too do the homework if you’re free.
(back to playing chess, the queen is under check)
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