In 2013 it happened, and this year it’s going to happen again. We have given the cushites another clear path to victory. They have set up the pace and everything is working well as planned.
Last week i had a chit chat with an orma guy and he promised me that they will harvest alot of posts in the Garsen constituency. First i took it as a mere propaganda but recently after some serious research and playing with numbers with our analytic panel (they predicted a huge Godhana victory in the nominations), we came to realise that not only are they planning to win the 2017 elections, but they are planning to dominate the Garsen region politically. In 2013 they came with a winning strategy, and this year they have come with another NEW winning strategy, and it is amazing.
In 2013, the cushites had only 2 candidates, which were Ibrahim Sane and Bakero Tuma. Sane won with 9,271 votes under URP ticket. In 2017, they have registered 7 candidates to vie for the same seat. To anyone out there it automatically means they will distribute the votes amongst each other, but to them that is the 2017 winning strategy.
In 2013, the pokomo had 7 candidates, that was Joel Ruhu, Wellington Pakia, Ali wayu etc. Ruhu emerged the second with 5,812 votes under Ford-Kenya ticket. In 2017 they have slightly reduced the number of registered candidates to 5. Currently they are using the same old 2013 losing strategy to probably lose the 2017 elections. This is already a disappointment to the Royal Pokomo Nation.
Honesty my thought on the Garsen constituency is that we are going to lose the 2017 Mp seat by 3pm in the afternoon. Pokomo have tried to come up with every winning strategy but all seems to have fail.
So how will the cushite win the Garsen National Assembly post?
First what they have planned is to implant many aspirants as possible to the post. According to data we are having is that they have 7 aspirants. They are planning to create the idea that they will divide their votes (already the idea has been planted to the ‘other’ camps). After that they will automatically convince the pokomo that they have a chance to beat them. The pokomo have 5 aspirants, whereas the cushites have 7 aspirants, so it’s a 5 vs 7 battle. On the election eve, following their secret M.O.U, the cushites will cast all votes they have on one basket, and the pokomo will distribute votes amongst their favourite chosen aspirant. On 9th August, a new cushite aspirant is chosen as an Mp and they plan on 2022. A perfect strategy indeed.
I know some people will not agree with this theory. Some will start saying they have the numbers, some will say the gasa has spoken and other will even say Morris Dullu was popularly chosen by the pokomos in Garsen. Well, everyone has their own opinions and we agree on that. But the question is, ‘How will we beat them?’
On 28th December some fellows planned a nomination exercise to determine the Garsen Mp aspirant. Was it done fairly? No. Was it conducted in all Tana Delta region? No. Did the aspirants who lost the nomination come to consensus with the rest? No. So how are we going to win this if we failed during the nominations?
For all those who think Morris Dullu is the answer then re-think again. According to the the data we are having is that only 13 villages out of all pokomo villages in Garsen voted (citation from our blog). The other villages felt abandoned and decided to support their own, and it will be like this come 8/8 when we prepare to lose miserably.
All the voters who participated in the nomination in those 13 villages were 3,815, much far behind from hitting the 15,000 votes needed to fully secure the Mp seat. Up to now there has been no effort to consolidate the other aspirants to join hands and come together. It seems everyone is by himself. Morris alone cannot even pull more than 5k votes.
The 2013 election was as follows;
Ali Wayu (NVP) 760 votes
Bakero Tuma (UDFP) 744 votes
Frankfaith Ddaiddi (FPK) 407 votes
Ibrahim Sane (URP) 9,271 votes
Irene Fibe (SDP) 1,382 votes
Joel Ruhu (Ford Kenya) 5,812 votes
Juma Gafo (Kadu Asili) 286 votes
Wellington Pakia (ODM) 3,052 votes
Weston Wachu (TNA) 1,200 votes
In 2017, Joel Ruhu (Ford Kenya), and Ali Wayu (ODM) are back on the ballot box again. These two still command a huge number of votes. Joel Ruhu has a huge base of voter empathy (he got 5k votes in 2013) and Ali Wayu is an ODM flag bearer and commands almost half the entire Garsen pokomos votes. The other new aspirants include Benard Matheka and Morris Dullu. These two are still young in the game. Choosing Morris Dullu for the seat was obviously not a wise idea.
If we add all the votes from the pokomo side we get 12,899 votes and 10,015 votes from the cushite side. The cushites were 2,884 votes shy from the pokomo side, meaning the pokomo were the majority voters back in 2013 and still they lost. The same thing will happen again, and it will be worse. Joel Ruhu, Ali Wayu and Morris Dullu will be the candidates to make pokomo lose again in 2017, and trust me, the day is coming fast.
Let the confusion continue!
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